Jims Big Picture: A Portfolio That Allows You to Sleep At NightAlso on the Big Picture: California Dreamin-An UpdateIn his first Big Picture segment, Jim looks at a very important subject for every investor in these volatile times, "A Portfolio That Allows You to Sleep At Night." In the second Big Picture topic, Jim revisits his earlier analysis of Californias troubled economy in "California Dreamin'-An Update." Jim also answers some of your Q-Calls in this segment.James J Puplava CFP with John Loeffler
Special Guest- Robb Wolf, author of the best-selling book, The Paleo Solution- The Original Human Diet This week Jim and Cathlyn discuss the situation of investors who would like to diversify an over-allocation in metals, but are waiting for the market to recover before they make any changes. Jim uses the case study of Thomas Leaderman to illustrate the costs of waiting for the right time. Jims guest this week is best-selling author Robb Wolf, author of The Paleo Solution- The Original Human Diet. Robb, a former research biochemist, has transformed the lives of people around the world via his podcast, books and seminars.
The Price of Oil Is Impacting Monetary Policy. In this segment of the Big Picture, Jim looks at how the price of oil has affected the economy and growth over the past three years, and how his concept of the Petro Business Cycle looks like it will be the New Normal in the years ahead. He also references recent interviews with oil experts Dr. Robert Hirsch and Dr. Oliver Inderwildi who concurred with his analysis on the Petro Business Cycle. Jim also answers your Q-calls in this segment of the program.
Also, Forget a QE Exit Plan- Serial Money Printing Is the Wave of the Future The first Big Picture topic this week is Game of Thrones- the Dollar vs. Gold. Jim looks at the massive global currency debasement among central banks, and in that current game the dollar is king. Gold is in the background and not a major player. Jim believes this will not last, but for now the dollar is winning the game. The next topic, Forget a QE Exit Plan, Serial Money Printing is the Wave of the Future, Jim notes that 14 central banks around the world have cut interest rates, and are printing money with no exit strategy in sight. He notes that the next Fed Chairperson, widely assumed to be Janet Yellen, will make Ben Bernanke look conservative when it comes to money printing.
Also, Ryan with the Market Wrap-Up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income. Ryan Puplava does double duty this week, giving his technical analysis on the markets as well as his weekly Market Wrap-up. Technically, Ryan sees a cyclical rotation of stocks into what he refers to as The Taper Trade, and out of more defensive stocks such as health care and utilities. Ryan is bullish on energy and copper as they are tied to more robust economic activity. Ryan also discusses bonds, gold and currencies. In addition, Erik Townsend looks at Commodities and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Special Guest: Peter Bell, president of the National Reverse Mortgage Association. This week Jim and Cathlyn discuss the dilemma of those sitting on the sideline in cash. When is the right time to make a move? They illustrate the issue by discussing the case study of a retired couple, David and Michelle, who are unhappy with the meager returns on cash and CDs, but have not been ready to make a move into the market. Jim lays out a strategy to boost their income, but warns that time may be running short for income investors. This weeks guest is Peter Bell, president & CEO of the National Reverse Mortgage Association.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-Up, Erik Townsend on Commodities and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income. Jim welcomes back Shelley D Moen CMT, Senior Market Strategist at Vermilion Technical Research, LLC. Shelley tells Jim that this is the best she has felt about the market since the bottom in 2002. She notes the Dow Theory buy signal, and believes this market has room to move higher. Shelley mentions that the Technology, Energy and Industrial sectors are all undervalued and very attractive at current levels. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this weeks Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend discusses commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Also, on the Big Picture: Dividend Stocks Still the Best Game in Town. In this weeks first topic on the Big Picture, Jim looks at the global problem of low interest rates for investors, and how difficult it is for those who need interst income to survive. Jim sees time running out in that any significant yield in the future will come with higher risk. Jim disucsses what a yield-starved investor should do. In the next Big Picture topic, which relates to the first topic, Jim lays out the case that dividend-paying stocks are still the best game in town. Jim also looks at specfic sectors within the dividend stock universe and explains why these blue-chip dividend plays are the best alternative in the current environment. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segement of the program.
Understanding Compound Interest- the Eighth Wonder of the World. This week on the Lifetime Income Series, Jim and Cathlyn discuss the very important topic of compound interest, once famously called the eighth wonder of the world by Albert Einstein. Jim and Cathlyn offer examples to explain the concept and why it is so important to start early, invest wisely and stay disciplined. The special guest this week is Veronica Dagher, a columnist at Dow Jones Company and The Wall Street Journal. Veronica discusses the mistakes people make with their 401-ks and how to avoid them.
Also, Chris Puplava with a Macro look at the second half, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income. Jim is pleased to welcome back technician Stan Weinstein, editor and publisher of the "Global Trend Alert," a financial advisory service for institutional investors. Stan sees the possibility of a short-term correction, but believes the current rally has more legs, given that the S&P closed above 1600 on Friday. Stan is still clearly bullish in his outlook, and also notes the rapid sector rotations. If we get a correction, he believes it will be a controlled correction. Stan is neutral on bonds, and negative on gold, at least for the next few months. Also in this segment, Chris Puplava gives his macro outlook for the second half of this year, Erik Townsend looks at commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Also on the Big Picture: On The Record- with Jim and John. In the first Big Picture topic this week, Jim looks at the next stock market rotation. He believes it will focus on the energy, technology and materials sectors, all of which are currently unloved, unappreciated and undervalued. The next topic will be the monthly conversation, On The Record, where John asks Jim questions of timely and topical importance. Some of the topics covered include why Jim is optimistic on stocks, why you dont want to store your bullion at a Wall Street bank, what distinguishes Jims practice from others in the industry, and why QE will end badly.
Jim answers your Q-Calls in this segment. In this Big Picture segment Jim looks at the mechanics of inflation, and why stock prices are likely headed higher as a result. Jim notes that historically, every monetary inflation begins with a rise in stock prices. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the Financial Sense Newshour.
Special Guest: Gregory French, J.D., President of the National Academy of Elder Law Attorneys (NAELA). This week Jim and Cathlyn discuss smarter retirement investing, relying less on cookie-cutter approaches and old allocation models for retirement. They discuss common mistakes and misguidance, as well as custom solutions in lieu of the cookie-cutter approach. The guest this week is attorney Gregory French, who will discuss legal issues and financial planning for long-term care, hospice, and VA benefits.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard with the Fixed Income Report. Jim welcomes back noted technician Tom McClellan of The McClellan Market Report. Tom sees some near-term problems in the markets through the summer, but is optimistic long-term on the stock market for the balance of the decade. Tom sees gold cycling up, and notes that junior gold stocks are widely disliked, and thus present a great opportunity. Also, Ryan Puplava has the Market Wrap-up this week, Erik Townsend discusses commodities, and Rob Bernard looks at the fixed income market.
Also on the Big Picture: Another Government Manufactured Crisis. In this weeks first Big Picture topic, Jim sees another soft patch ahead for the economy, as the Leading Economic Indicators are starting to roll over, anticipating a slowdown ahead. In his next topic, Another Government Manufactured Crisis Jim looks at the Air Traffic Controller mess that the FAA claims is a result of Sequestration. As is frequently the case in governmental actions, common sense seems to be in short supply. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Changes In The Gold Mining Industry- Better News For Investors. Jim welcomes renowned geologist Keith Barron, PhD to the program. Keith was co-founder of Ecuadorian gold explorer Aurelian Resources Inc. and made the colossal Fruta del Norte gold discovery in 2006. Keith is currently founder and Exploration Geologist at U308 Corp. Keith and Jim discuss the new gold stock paradigm that is emerging, where companies are becoming more investor-friendly, relying less on the old acquisition of ounces model, and more on increasing shareholder value through cost controls, and emphasis on quality over quantity.
Special Guest: Dr. Bonnie Olsen on Elder Financial Fraud and Abuse. This week Jim and Cathlyn use the case study of Joe and Irene Turner to illustrate several issues facing todays retirees. These issues include Long Term Care and medical expenses, fear of the financial markets, inflation, the difficulty of maintaining quality of life in a 0% interest rate environment and reconciling budgets versus sources of income. The guest this week is Dr. Bonnie Olsen of the National Council on Elder Abuse. Dr. Olsen discusses financial fraud and abuse on the elderly and how to avoid it.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income. Jim is pleased to welcome back legendary technician Ralph Acampora, Director of Tactical Investments at Altaira Wealth Management. Ralph sees the market in a corrective mode, which could last a month or so. He notes divergences in the Transports and the DAX. He sees the US and Japan as the best places to invest, and believes the secular bull is still in the early stages. However, Ralph sees the bond bull-market in the 9th inning of its long 30 year run. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava wraps up this week in the markets, Erik Townsend discusses gold and commodities, and Rob Bernard looks at bonds and interest rates in the Fixed Income Report.
Also, The Dividend Story Keeps Getting Better, Better and Better In this segment of the Big Picture, Jim looks at two stock related topics. In Drop, Pop and a Melt-up in the Stock Market, Jim discusses the idea that the next stock market melt-up will be caused by the flight of global capital coming into the US from both Asia and Europe. In the next topic, The Dividend Story keeps getting Better, Better and Better, Jim looks at the reasons why to own dividend-paying equities, and the trend of growing dividend pay-outs in the first quarter of 2013. Jim will also answer your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Kathryn Derbes of KDerbes Precious Metals LLC - Were Completely Out of Silver Eagles - Theyre Gone In this segment of the Big Picture Jim looks at the large decline in gold and silver, and gets into the reasons behind the carnage, as well as the huge difference between physical gold & silver and paper gold & silver. Jim notes that investors should know why they own gold, understand it, and then leave it alone. Also, Kathy Derbes CFA, and CEO of KDerbes Precious Metals LLC, joins Jim in this segment. She notes the current record buying of physical precious metals, last seen during the Lehman crisis, and says her firm is completely out of Silver Eagles. Kathy is not even taking orders for more Eagles, as it may take six to eight weeks or more to acquire them.
Special Guest: Attorney Tom Collett Discusses Tax-efficient Business Planning. In this weeks edition Jim and Cathlyn discuss the function of bonds in a portfolio, and how to evaluate them. They go over bond basics such as maturity date, coupon yield and current yield, as well as identifying the main bond risks. Jim explains the primary functions of a bond in a portfolio allocation, as well as how to assess the performance of bonds within a portfolio. They also reiterate the important difference between a bond and a bond fund. The guest this week is Tom Collett, Senior Attorney at Standard Retirement Services, Inc. in Cincinnati, Ohio. Tom will discuss tax-efficient business planning.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Warp-up, Chris Puplava on Gold, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income. Jim welcomes back Craig Johnson CMT CFA, a Principal and Senior Technical Research Analyst at Piper Jaffray. Craig sees the S&P reaching 1700 by years end, although he notes that investors are still skeptical and only reluctantly long. Craig sees the next great catalyst to launch the market higher will be the shift from bonds and bond funds into stocks, as interest rates begin to climb. Also this week, Ryan Puplava wraps up this week in the markets, and Chris Puplava joins the program to discuss the volatile gold market. Rob Bernard looks at interest rates and the fixed income market this week.
Also on the Big Picture, Gold- The Final Maalox Moment- I Want To Hold Your Hand This week on the Big Picture Jim looks at two important topics, the Dow and Gold. In the first topic, Jim puts this weeks record highs in the Dow Jones index in context and offers his analysis on current stock valuations. In the next topic, Jim discusses if this weeks washout in gold is the final Maalox Moment. He also looks closely at gold leasing as one of the key culprits behind the severe selling pressure. Jims characterization of the gold leasing market can be summarized in the following question: Its 12 Oclock- Do you know where your gold is?
Newspeak Terms- The Main Stream Media as Orwellian Mouthpiece. Jims Big Picture topic this segment focuses on the recent budget negotiations going on in Washington. Jim pulls back the curtain on Washingtons budget games and gives his perspective on the current budget process. Jim sees it as 21st century feudalism, as budgetary policies favor big government and big business over small business, which has always been the engine for job creation. He also takes the main stream media to task for allowing Washington to use Orwellian Newspeak to describe the budgetary process. Jim will also answer your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Special Guest: Dr. Wade Pfau of The American College on the 4% Withdrawal Rule. This week Jim and Cathlyn discuss how many taxpayers, particularly in California, are getting nasty surprises heading into tax season with retroactive 2012 tax increases and higher estimated Federal taxes for 2013. They discuss tools to reduce taxable income, and the investment and taxation implications of dividend-paying stocks, retirement plans and trusts. This weeks guest is Dr. Wade Pfau of The American College. He will discuss the 4% withdrawal rule used in traditional retirement planning assumptions, and assess its strengths and weaknesses.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities and Jim Puplava on Fixed Income. Jim is pleased to welcome noted technician Louise Yamada CMT, Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors. Louise sees a short-term consolidation ahead, and thinks the markets are ready for a pause. She sees a 5-10% decline as not out of line. She admits monetary policy by the Fed is a big factor in todays stock market. On gold, Louise believes the technical factors dont look good at the present, with distribution taking place. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this weeks Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend covers commodities, and Jim Puplava has this weeks Fixed Income Report, sitting in for Rob Bernard.
Also, Has The Glitter Faded? Why Gold Prices Can Still Go Higher In this weeks first Big Picture topic Wash, Rinse and Repeat that was then, this is now Jim looks at a repeat of the Petro Business Cycle pattern for the fourth year in a row. The familiar economic scenario features a strong start to the year, then the LEIs roll over and the economy starts to slow, which is followed by more Federal Reserve stimulus, which leads to a strong finish to the year. Wash, rinse and repeat. The next topic, Has the glitter faded? Why gold prices can go higher is in response to the weak precious metals market. Jim continues his thesis that you dont need a Doomsday scenario to see rising gold prices in the future. This topic also leads into Jims in-depth conversation with John Kaiser on gold in the next segment of the program. Jim also answers some of your Q-calls in this segment.
The Reasons Behind the Bear Market in Gold Equities and What Comes Next. Jim welcomes special guest and independent gold analyst John Kaiser of Kaiser Research Online and Kaiser Bottom-Fish Online. In a wide-ranging discussion on gold and gold equities, John and Jim look at the reasons behind the bear market in gold equities; the fundamentals of the mining business, the rise of the Robo-Traders, and the role (and complicity) of the regulators. They also discuss catalysts for why the gold market can recover and continue higher, and why it wont take Armageddon. John and Jim also advise what to do as a gold stock investor, and how to not fall prey to the Robo-Traders. Also, Jim answers more of your Q-Calls in this segment.
Special guest: Attorney Roberta Robinson on Tax Planning Strategies. In this weeks edition, Jim and Cathlyn discuss the reasons to formulate retirement and estate plans early, and why this can be very beneficial later on in retirement. They look at a case study and offer specific solutions for creating a more successful retirement. The guest this week is attorney Roberta Robinson, who speaks about tax planning for the not-quite-1%-ers and discusses specific tax planning strategies. Roberta is well known for her ability to explain complex ideas in a clear manner.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income. Jim welcomes back David Nicoski CMT, Director of Research at Vermilion Technical Research LLC. David sees no sign of a top, with financials, energy and industrials doing very well and the transports confirming the uptrend. He believes that blue chip stocks are still cheap, and US economic growth is right now the best on the planet. Also, Ryan Puplava has this weeks market update, Erik Townsend and Jim discuss commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Also, Reasons For Baby Boomers to be Baby Gloomers in Retirement In the first Big Picture topic this week, Jim looks at the Federal Reserves exit strategy from its extreme low interest rate policy. Jim lays out the reasons why rates will not likely rise anytime soon, and then only slowly. This is of course bad news for any investors in cash, hoping for higher interest rates. In the next Big Picture topic, Jim explains the many reasons why the retirement system is vastly different for the Baby Boomers than the World War II generation that preceded them. Taken in total, the evidence points to a gloomy retirement ahead for many Baby Boomers. Jim also answers some of your Q-Calls in this segment.
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